2025 Presidential Election: Focus On How The Far North Region In Particular, And Grand North In General, Determines The Results Of Presidential Elections (Part 2)

President Biya Has Since The Beginning Of This Century, Been Depending On The Far North Region In Particular And The Grand North In General, For Victories At Presidential Election

All Major Political Parties Of The Grand North Like Minister Bello Bouba’s UNDP, Minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary’s FSNC, and Late Dakale Dassaila’a MDR, Have Been Supporting Biya’s Candidacy

The National President Of FSNC, Issa Tchiroma Bakary, Says Nobody Can Win The Presidential Election In Cameroon, Without The Support Of The Grand North

Official statistics Statics show that since  the beginning of this century, President Biya has been depending much on the Far North Region in particular, and the Grand North in general,  to win  presidential elections.

It would be recalled that at the first presidential election in Cameroon following the rebirth of multiparty politics in the country, President Biya according to official election result, won by a slight margin over the principal opposition candidate, Ni John Fru Ndi. However the opposition, civil society organizations and others, hold up till date, that Fru Ndi won the election, but the victory was stolen. Even Hon Albert Dzongang, who then was a CPDM bigwig, and was involved in the election, openly declared not long ago that Fru Ndi won the 1992 presidential election, but it was decided at some quarters that the victory should not be given to him.   As for the next presidential election which was in 1997, it was boycotted by the major opposition parties like Ni John Fru Ndi’s SDF and Bello Bouba Maigari’s UNDP, and so the election result really had nothing to write home about.

Biya Strike Deals With Political Parties Of The Grand North

From the look of things, President Biya and his close political advisers and strategists, had unanimously come to the conclusion that he has to depend or count on the votes of the three northern Regions commonly known as Grand North, and most particularly the Far North Region, to win presidential elections. That was how the ruling CPDM party struck a deal with the leading northern party which is Bello Bouba Maigari’s UNDP, a few months after the 1997 presidential election that the UNDP, SDF and other opposition parties boycotted. The ruling CPDM and the UNDP, got into an official alliance.

Suffice to say that the Biya regime succeeded to strike deals with all major northern parties, which included Bello Bouba Maigari’s UNDP, Dakole Daissala’s MDR, Issa Tchiroma Bakari’s FSNC, and Hamadou Moustapha’s ANDP. It should be noted that the first deal that the Biya regime struck with a Northern party, was in fact after the first multiparty legislative elections that held on March 1, 1992. The CPDM failed to have a majority in parliament in the election, and had to negotiate a deal with Dakole Daissala’s MDP which won 6 seats in parliament, for an alliance which enabled the CPDM Party to count on a majority vote in parliament. Worth noting, that Dakole Diassala is now of blessed memory.

 Alliances To Support Paul Biya At Presidential Election

Meanwhile it stands out clear that the main objective of the alliances or deals that the Biya regime has with the northern parties, is to enable Biya to win the Grand North, especially the Far North Region, by landslide at presidential elections. It should be noted that it is only at presidential elections that the alliances are active. During municipal, legislatives, senatorial and regional elections, there is no alliance between the Biya regime or CPDM party, and the northern parties.

It should as well be noted that the general tendency is that political parties of the Southern part of Cameroon, behave as if the Northern parties don’t exist, because of the disappointment of the parties of the Grand South that the parties of Grand North, are in alliance with the CPDM or the Biya regime. But the fact is that the northern parties in general are strong political parties, unlike most parties in the Grand South.  When Southerners talk about the 1992 presidential election, the general tendency is to end at the result of Biya and Fru Ndi. The official result showed that Biya won by 39 % while Fru Ndi came second with 36 %.

But worthy of note  that the National President of UNDP, Bello Bouba Maigari , who was  his party’s candidate at the October 1992  presidential election, came 3^rd in the election, wining a little over 20 % of  the votes. That was also a big deal for an opposition party. More so, Bello Bouba at the election was unlike the Fru Ndi who  besides being the presidential candidate of his SDF  Party, was also the candidate of the powerful coalition, Union for Change. Bello Bouba was not supported by a coalition.

 Bello Bouba Maigari’s UNDP Performances In Legislative / Municipal Elections

  UNDP’s performance at legislative, municipal and regional elections in the Grand North, up till date, shows that Bello Bouba’s party remains a strong political force in the country.  For example at the last municipal elections which took place in the country on February 9, 2020, the UNDP beat its two main challengers, Paul Biya’s CPDM and Issa Tchiroma’s FSNC in Vina, and swept the Ngaoundere Councils.  Furthermore, UNDP beat CPDM is the first regional election in the Adamawa Region in December 2020, and thus runs the Adamawa Regional Council. In fact Bello Bouba’s UNDP is currently the second political force in the country today, with 7 parliamentary seats, 17 municipal councils, and a regional council, all won in the Grand North. UNDP also has 1 appointed senator in the Littoral Region.

Issa Tchiroma’s FSNC / Late Dakole Daissala’s MDR Are Also Political Forces, In The Grand North 

Issa Tchiroma Bakary’s relatively young FSNC Party, has rapidly become a political force to be reckon with in the Grand North. The FSNC currently has 3 parliamentary seats and 4 councils, which the party won at the last legislative and municipal elections in the Grand North. The elections held in February 2020. It should be noted that one of the municipal councils that Issa Tchiroma’s FSNC currently runs, is the Maroua 2 Council. That is a big deal.  FSNC also has an appointed senator.  The FSNC of Issa Tchiroma is also one of the only four political parties, in the country, that are present in a Regional Council. The other three are the ruling CPDM, UNDP and Late Adamou Ndam Njoya’s CDU Party.

Meanwhile, late Dakole Daissala’s MDR which is one of the allies of President Biya, has 2 MPs and runs two councils, which the party won at the 2020 legislative and municipal elections in the Far North Region. The party also has one appointed senator. The only weak political party among the northern parties, that are in alliance with President Biya or the ruling CPDM, is the ANDP of Hamadou Moustapha, which has one appointed senator and 3 councilors in the Maroua II Council.

Worthy of note that  Hamadou Moustapha and Issa Tchiroma Bakary, are former 1^st Vice National President and Secretary Genera respectively, of the UNDP Party.

Issa Tchiroma Bakary’s Declaration

Early this year, the National President of FSNC, Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who is also the Minister of Employment and Professional Training, declared that nobody can win the presidential election in Cameroon without the support of the Grand North.  He is probably right to an extent. It should be noted that the Grand North is comprised of three regions – the Adamawa, the Far North and the North Regions. The population of the Adamawa and North Regions, especially, that of Adamawa, are much smaller than of the Far North Region.

Because of   the alliances that the Biya regime has with the major northern parties, which bring the parties to support his candidacy of Biya at presidential elections, he has been winning the presidential elections in all the three regions of the Grand North. At the 2018 presidential election for example, the number of registered voters in the Adamawa Region was 433,873, while the number of votes cast was 242,529, which was 55.90 %. The total number of valid votes was 238,681. Out of the 238,681 valid votes, President Biya grabbed 190,391 votes (79. 77 %).  Maurice Kamto who came second in the presidential election, got 6,240 votes, which was a score of 2.61 %, in the Adamawa Region.

.  As for the Far North Region, the total number of registered voters at the 2018 presidential election was 1,135, 942, while the number of votes casted was 821,311, which was 72.30 %. Total number of valid votes was 804, 189.  Paul Biya got 717,442 votes out of the total of 804, 189 valid votes, which was a score of 89.21%. Maurice Kamto on his part got 27,770 votes, which was a score of 3.45 %.

As for North Region, the number of registered voters was 671,611, while the number of votes casted stood at 368,454, which was 54.86%. The number of valid votes was 375,376, out of which the incumbent, Pal Biya, grabbed 291,674 votes, which was a score of 81.62 %. As for Maurice Kamto, he received 14,825 votes, which was a score of 4.15%.

So it comes out clear that with the support of northern parties, Bya sweeps the votes in the Grand North of three regions, which includes the Far North Region said to be the most populated region in the country. When a candidate gets this type of scores in the Grand North, is become almost impossible for the other candidates to catch up with him. More so, almost all presidential candidates having been coming from the Grand South, and so it is not easy for a candidate to get a landslide victory in a region in the Grand South.So in today’s Cameroon, it appears that Issa Tchiroma Bakary was right in what he said, that the Grand North these days decides the winner of a presidential election in Cameroon.